2026 AAC Volleyball Championship
π American Athletic
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship
American Athletic Tournament Projections(13 teams Β· 10k simulations)
| Seed | Team | Elo | Quarters | Semis | Final | π Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1855 | 99% | 77% | 50% | 31% |
| 2 | Tulsa | 1830 | 98% | 74% | 47% | 27% |
| 3 | Wichita St. | 1731 | 92% | 55% | 28% | 13% |
| 4 | South Florida | 1730 | 94% | 55% | 27% | 13% |
| 5 | North Texas | 1639 | 78% | 35% | 14% | 6% |
| 6 | Fla. Atlantic | 1647 | 83% | 37% | 15% | 5% |
| 7 | Charlotte | 1509 | 51% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 8 | Temple | 1507 | 49% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 9 | UAB | 1510 | 52% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 10 | UTSA | 1496 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| 11 | East Carolina | 1475 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 | Tulane | 1390 | 15% | 3% | 1% | β |
| 13 | Memphis | 1337 | 11% | 2% | β | β |
Values = P(reach that stage or further). Win = P(win conference tournament = auto NCAA bid). Seeds reflect average simulated finish position.
American Athletic Standings
8 qualify for tournamentPreseason projection Β· 104 games remainingSnapshot Week
Standings Β· Finishing Position Probabilities
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Proj Conf | Proj Ovr | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 0β0 | 0β0 | 12.3β3.7 11β14 W | 12.3β3.7 11β14 W | 35 | 23 | 16 | 10 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | Tulsa | 0β0 | 0β0 | 12.2β3.8 11β14 W | 12.2β3.8 11β14 W | 32 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | <1 |
| 3 | South Florida | 0β0 | 0β0 | 10.6β5.4 9β12 W | 10.6β5.4 9β12 W | 10 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | Wichita St. | 0β0 | 0β0 | 10.3β5.7 9β12 W | 10.3β5.7 9β12 W | 11 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Fla. Atlantic | 0β0 | 0β0 | 9.2β6.8 7β11 W | 9.2β6.8 7β11 W | 4.8 | 8.4 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 6 | North Texas | 0β0 | 0β0 | 8.8β7.2 7β11 W | 8.8β7.2 7β11 W | 4.5 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 7 | UAB | 0β0 | 0β0 | 6.9β9.1 5β9 W | 6.9β9.1 5β9 W | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Charlotte | 0β0 | 0β0 | 6.8β9.2 5β9 W | 6.8β9.2 5β9 W | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 8.8 | 6.4 |
| 9 | Temple | 0β0 | 0β0 | 6.7β9.3 5β9 W | 6.7β9.3 5β9 W | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9.5 | 6.0 |
| 10 | UTSA | 0β0 | 0β0 | 6.3β9.7 4β8 W | 6.3β9.7 4β8 W | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 7.7 |
| 11 | East Carolina | 0β0 | 0β0 | 5.8β10.2 4β8 W | 5.8β10.2 4β8 W | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| 12 | Tulane | 0β0 | 0β0 | 4.2β11.8 3β6 W | 4.2β11.8 3β6 W | <1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 |
| 13 | Memphis | 0β0 | 0β0 | 3.8β12.2 2β5 W | 3.8β12.2 2β5 W | <1 | <1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 34 |
Position columns: % of 10,000 simulated seasons finishing there. Row below cut line = P(reach tournament).
Finishing Position Range β Season Progression
RiceTulsaSouth FloridaWichita St.Fla. AtlanticNorth TexasUABCharlotteTempleUTSAEast CarolinaTulaneMemphis