2026 MVC Volleyball Tournament
π Missouri Valley
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship
Missouri Valley Tournament Projections(11 teams Β· 10k simulations)
| Seed | Team | Elo | Quarters | Semis | Final | π Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNI | 1972 | 99% | 99% | 88% | 70% |
| 2 | Drake | 1719 | 97% | 84% | 48% | 15% |
| 3 | UIC | 1650 | 92% | 69% | 28% | 8% |
| 4 | Valparaiso | 1560 | 81% | 47% | 14% | 3% |
| 5 | Illinois St. | 1536 | 80% | 48% | 13% | 3% |
| 6 | Belmont | 1431 | 53% | 21% | 4% | 1% |
| 7 | Bradley | 1403 | 40% | 15% | 3% | β |
| 8 | Southern Ill. | 1366 | 41% | 13% | 2% | β |
| 9 | Murray St. | 1188 | 7% | 1% | β | β |
| 10 | Indiana St. | 1169 | 5% | 1% | β | β |
| 11 | Evansville | 1150 | 3% | β | β | β |
Values = P(reach that stage or further). Win = P(win conference tournament = auto NCAA bid). Seeds reflect average simulated finish position.
Missouri Valley Standings
6 qualify for tournamentPreseason projection Β· 88 games remainingSnapshot Week
Standings Β· Finishing Position Probabilities
| # | Team | Conf | Overall | Proj Conf | Proj Ovr | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNI | 0β0 | 0β0 | 14.8β1.2 14β16 W | 14.8β1.2 14β16 W | 83 | 13 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | <1 | |||||
| 2 | Drake | 0β0 | 0β0 | 11.8β4.2 11β13 W | 11.8β4.2 11β13 W | 10 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | <1 | |
| 3 | UIC | 0β0 | 0β0 | 10.5β5.5 9β12 W | 10.5β5.5 9β12 W | 4.1 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | <1 |
| 4 | Illinois St. | 0β0 | 0β0 | 9.6β6.4 8β11 W | 9.6β6.4 8β11 W | 1.5 | 12 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5 | Valparaiso | 0β0 | 0β0 | 9.2β6.8 8β11 W | 9.2β6.8 8β11 W | 1.4 | 9.4 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 6 | Belmont | 0β0 | 0β0 | 7.6β8.4 6β9 W | 7.6β8.4 6β9 W | 0.2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 7 | Southern Ill. | 0β0 | 0β0 | 7.0β9.0 5β9 W | 7.0β9.0 5β9 W | <1 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 7.2 | 3.3 |
| 8 | Bradley | 0β0 | 0β0 | 6.7β9.3 5β8 W | 6.7β9.3 5β8 W | <1 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 7.2 | 3.1 |
| 9 | Murray St. | 0β0 | 0β0 | 4.0β12.0 2β5 W | 4.0β12.0 2β5 W | <1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 14 | 22 | 26 | 25 | |
| 10 | Indiana St. | 0β0 | 0β0 | 3.6β12.4 2β5 W | 3.6β12.4 2β5 W | <1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 12 | 20 | 27 | 31 | |
| 11 | Evansville | 0β0 | 0β0 | 3.3β12.7 2β5 W | 3.3β12.7 2β5 W | <1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 36 |
Position columns: % of 10,000 simulated seasons finishing there. Row below cut line = P(reach tournament).
Finishing Position Range β Season Progression
UNIDrakeUICIllinois St.ValparaisoBelmontSouthern Ill.BradleyMurray St.Indiana St.Evansville